RURAL campaigner Colin Speakman looks at the implication of Brexit on the Dales:

AFTER perhaps the most divisive and bitterly contested referendum in British history, with a small but decisive majority to leave the European Union, what will this mean for the people and the countryside of the Yorkshire Dales?

Contrary to alarmist predictions, the sky has not fallen and for most people life continues much as it did before June 23. But there will be changes, not all possible to fully predict, perhaps for some time to come.

A jittery stock market and fall in the value of the pound may be a temporary phenomenon; nothing worries domestic and foreign investors more than uncertainty, a situation exacerbated by the current political upheaval in both major parties.

Even when these matters are resolved, leaving the EU could create other problems, especially for hill farmers who contribute so much to the landscape of the Dales we cherish.

UK agriculture currently relies heavily on financial support via the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). In 2015 support from Brussels for UK farming amounted to £3.1 billion. Average income of farmers was just £19,471 but three quarters of this came from the EU. Many farmers suggest that it is not farmers who are being subsidised, but consumers, in that EU support for agriculture means cheaper food on supermarket shelves.

It is suggested that it will simply be a matter of switching money that the UK sends to the EU to support our own farming industry. But there is no guarantee that levels will be as generous as they are via the CAP, though many people also suggest that large CAP grants to wealthy farmers and landowners in the grain belts of East Anglia are overdue for reform. But for hill famers of Northern England such support is essential.

A wider UK concern is that parts of the UK financial industry have indicated that they may transfer some or all of their operations together with their tax contributions to Frankfurt, Paris or even Dublin, in order to remain within EU markets, with serious loss of jobs and tax revenues. Will a new British Government, facing increasing financial pressure, possible tax irises and further expenditure cuts, see Dales farmers as a priority for ever scarcer public sector funds? What happens to the many Stewardship payments, which have done so much to help maintain barns, walls, and the flower-rich meadows of the Dales?

A significant percentage of what is produced on our farms – including high quality beef and lamb - is exported into neighbouring EU countries and has to be competitive on both quality and price.New tariff barriers with our main trading partners could be a handicap.

Britain produces around 60 per cent of its own food, the rest coming from abroad. But only 15 per cent of fresh fruit and 55 per cent of vegetables we consume are grown in Britain. Restrictions on workers from East Europe may create severe labour shortages, as few British people want to take on hard, seasonal labour of this nature, even if pay was better. If farmers and food processors in fruit and vegetable growing areas can’t get workers, they may be tempted to sell up and move to countries within the EU where land and labour is cheap, resulting in more imports, and ultimately higher food prices and higher inflation. It also means as a nation we would become relatively poorer.

It is easy to mock EU bureaucracy. But the Yorkshire Dales National park has benefited enormously from EU environmental laws and directives. Nature takes no notice of artificial national boundaries. Migrating birds and mammals need sanctuary in all the lands they cross. The EU Habitats Directive, which created Special Conservation Areas to protect wildlife, has made a huge difference to our continent. Before the various directives, around 15 per cent of protected sites in Europe every year were being destroyed – this is now down to less than one per cent.

For the tourism industry in the Dales, BREXIT could be a two-edged sword. Many Dales accommodation providers and caterers rely heavily on young Spanish, Polish, Lithuanian workers as cooks, bar staff and waiters. Restriction of freedom of movement could create labour shortages and higher costs, causing some businesses to close.

But the other side of the coin is that overseas holidays will become more expensive for British people. “Staycation” holidays in Wharfedale rather than the Costa Brava could be a welcome boost, especially for camp and caravan site owners. Equally, the Yorkshire Dales will become a more attractive destination for visitors from Europe and America if their dollar or euro buys more. We must ensure that leaving the EU does not make us any less welcoming to our continental neighbours, with whom we share huge bonds of friendship, history and common European culture.

If Britain becomes a poorer, less affluent country as a result of leaving the EU, then this might encourage greater self-sufficiency. More expensive food in the shops is an incentive to grow more food ourselves, perhaps seeking ways of making marginal hill country more productive with new ways of sustainable farming and localism, green energy instead of fossil fuels.

Brexit is now a reality. What divided the country, now needs to unite us. It is time for new, perhaps radical thinking about the future. Whether we are farmers or consumers, whether of food or countryside, finding ways to make Brexit work to our advantage is the new imperative.